Jun 12th - Jun 16th | CPI, PPI, Fed Interest Rate Decision, FOMC, ECB Press Conference, Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Bulletized information carried forward.

• Price points of interest: 4232, 4215, 4205, 4200, 4190, 4180, 4170, 4165/60, 4140, 4125, and 4100

• Waterfall moment may occur at 4075

• From ATH and October 2022 lows: 61.8%: 4309.25, 50%: 4155.25, 38.2%: 4001

• The high of Aug 16th, 2022, at 4327.50

• Gaps: 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50 We have another week and another month of higher highs and higher lows.

I am unsure of the data after this week as it’s that time of the quarter for rollover. So all the data I have collected in the past quarter may differ once we roll over to the ESU23 contract.

Jun 5th - Jun 9th: VAH 4298, POC 4274, VAL 4273.50, TPOC 4292.50

• The weekly high at 4325.50, and the low at 4262.75

• 61.8%: 4301.50, 50%: 4294, 38.2%: 4287

• Timeframe continuity: Daily: Up, Weekly: Up, Monthly: Up, Quarterly: Up

2 out of the 5 sessions last week I find essential.

• 6/9 | The poor/unsecured high and low, 4305 and 4300

• 6/8 | A period excess, single print range: 4283 - 4281.50

June.

• 6/2 | Gap-up range: 4249 - 4231.50

• 6/1 | single prints: 4218.50 - 4214, 4210.50 - 4208.50, 4201.50 - 4198, NTPOC: 4228

May

• From a monthly perspective 3rd test, oddly, the 1st test was in May of 2022 (pretty close in terms of when it occurred), and the 2nd was in Aug 2022, with the weekly 5th test and daily 7th test of the 4300 area, since Apr 2022.

• May is the 4th consecutive month of higher highs and higher lows.

• 61.8%: 4252, 50%: 4238, 38.2%: 4224

• 5/31 | The poor/unsecured low around 4174

• 5/26 | A period excess buying tail.

• 5/25 | non-excess lows, NTPOC 4159

• 5/24 | Poor/unsecured low at 4114, NTPOC 4125.50

• 5/4 | Neutral profile, high volume, non-excess low 4062.50, a cluster of buying between 4175 - 4071.50 (possible waterfall moment if we revisit), NTPOC 4078.50 • 5/5 | Gap-up range 4011.50 - 4072.75 imbalanced up

• 5/12 | Poor low at 4111.75

6/9 session: VAH 4316, POC 4305, VAL 4300, NTPOC: 4308.50

• The poor/unsecured high and low, 4325.50 and 4294, respectively.

• Settlement price: 4304.75

• 50% retracement: 4309.75

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.50 (folks are unfearful)

The session closed in what candlestick readers call a Doji candle and, in this case, in an uptrend. I interpret it as indecision between buyers and sellers, but some may read it as a possible trend reversal since it happened while going up, which requires the next candle to be a down candle for confirmation.

I will observe whether this is a “Look above and fail?” and get back into the 5-6 day balance/CVA or pullback and reject for a higher move. And since we have a poor/unsecured high and low, it’ll be tricky. Bulls want to stay above 4305, accepting higher prices, and bears want to get back below 4300 and into the 5-6 day balance area.

My question is: Do we repair the poor low, rejecting lower prices and trade back up toward the poor high, or the reverse, repair the poor high, trade back down toward the poor low, and get back into balance?

We may wait for more data like CPI, PPI, and FOMC and stay within confined ranges, or get back into balance and then break out/down after the data.

5-6 CVA: VAH 4295, POC 4290, VAL 4275

My pivot for the reopening on Monday will be 4305.

Scenario 1:

Pullback longs around 4300, or 4295/90. Trading down to 4290 will repair the poor low, also the POC of the 5-6 day CVA.

Scenario 2:

Fade 4316/18, back down toward the POC or the VAL, and monitor for continuation back into the 5-6 day CVA. Being mindful that this is countertrend with the possibility that we may go higher to repair the poor high

All credits goes to Jon. His bigger timeframe analysis is better than mine. Been active in the same discord with him and comparing my bigger timeframe analysis to his but he is just way more accurate therefore I talked to him and asked if it would be okay for me to take his instead of mine for our small but growing community. I am a scalper after all and thats where my edge and skillset is. This doesnt mean I am not constantly trying to improve on my bigger timeframe analysis I just think it his more value in sharing a better analysis with you guys. And in the end I wanna provide you guys the most value possible and not let my ego go into the way cause I wanna share mine. So huge shoutout to him and thank you for letting me use it.