Jun 19th - Jun 23rd | Building Permits, Fed Chair Powell, Cook, and Jefferson Testimony, Feds Williams, Goolsbee, Mester, Waller,
Bulletized information carried forward
• Price points of interest: 4232, 4215, 4205, 4200, 4190, 4180, 4170, 4165/60, 4140, 4125, and 4100
• Waterfall moment may occur at 4075
• From ATH and October 2022 lows: 61.8%: 4309.25, 50%: 4155.25, 38.2%: 4001
• The high of Aug 16th, 2022, at 4327.50
• Gaps: 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50
June mid-month:
• 61.8%: 4373, 50%: 4336, 38.2%: 4298
• High: 4493.50
• Low:4178
Jun 12th - Jun 16th: VAH: 4470, POC: 4416, VAL: 4380
• My key level for next week is 4440
• Single prints: 4445 and 4380 - 4372
• Weekly High at 4493.50 and Weekly Low at 4351.25
• 61.8%: 4440 (FOMC High: 4439.50), 50%: 4422, 38.2%: 4405
• Timeframe continuity: Daily: Up, Weekly: Up, Monthly: Up, Quarterly: Up
• 4th week of OTFU from a weekly perspective
4 out of the sessions last week I found essential.
• 6/16 | A period selling tail/excess, NTPOC: 4472.50
• 6/15 | A period buying tail/excess, single print: 4445
• 6/13 and 6/14 | I merged these two days together, the CPI and FOMC SoC: VAH: 4423, POC: 4416, VAL: 4404
• 6/12 | single prints: 4380.50 - 4376.50 and 4374 - 4369, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50
Early June
• 6/2 | Gap-up range: 4249 - 4231.50 | ESU23 4293 - 4275.75
• 6/1 | 4262.50 - 4258, 4254.50 - 4252.50, 4245.50 - 4242, NTPOC: 4272.50
May May.
• From a monthly perspective 3rd test, oddly, the 1st test was in May of 2022 (pretty close in terms of when it occurred), and the 2nd was in Aug 2022, with the weekly 5th test and daily 7th test of the 4300 area, since Apr 2022.
• May is the 4th consecutive month of higher highs and higher lows.
• 5/31 | The poor/unsecured low around 4218
• 5/26 | A period excess buying tail.
• 5/25 | non-excess lows, NTPOC 4203
• 5/24 | Poor/unsecured low at 4158, NTPOC 4170
• 5/4 | Neutral profile, high volume, non-excess low 4106, a cluster of buying between 4120 - 4116 (possible waterfall moment if we revisit), NTPOC 4122.50
• 5/5 | Gap-up range 4011.50 - 4072.75 | ESU23 4118.50 - 4155 imbalanced up
• 5/12 | Poor low at 4156 4 tests of this area
6/16 session: VAH: 4490, POC 4475, VAL 4466
• A period selling tail/excess
• NTPOC: 4472.50 also happens to be the 50% retracement.
• settlement and last price at 4453.75 and 4459, respectively
• M period spike range: 4451 - 4465.50 | possible range for Sunday night
• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.46
• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 45.2 and Bears 22.7 last updated 6/14 (numbers not seen since 2021)
Carryover from last week: The ranges/areas I’m interested in are 4440, 4465, and 4490 (why not say 4500?)
My pivot for the reopening will still be 4465.
The scenarios will also depend on a review of the OVN inventory before reopening.
Scenario 1:
If we open in the morning session, I will look to fade 4472 - 4475, with the pivot being closely watched. The pivot may also act as an aggressive short entry point. Obstacles for further downside are the 6/16 low/settlement and last price, possibly toward 4440
Scenario 2:
I may become a buyer at 4440 but may look to buy around the 6/16 low/settlement price
As always thank you jontron!