Jun 21st - ECB Schnabel Speech, Fed Chair Powell, Cook, and Jefferson Testimonies, Fed Goolsbee and Mester Speeches

Recap from yesterday June 20th:

A period high was 4442.50, and the pivot for the day was 4440. The open was straight into scenario 1 to monitor longs at 4430. The low for the A period was 4431.50. There was heavy absorption at the highs, and once buyers figured it out, a long liquidation ensued during the B period, which traversed the merged CPI and FOMC sessions.

With A and B periods took care of most of the range for the day and scenario 1, going past the merged POC at 4416 by several points but not all the way through to the VAL around 4404, with the C period peeking below the IB before reversing, with H period looking above the IB high and also reversing, giving us poor/unsecured high and low for the session.

Scenarios 2 and 3 were invalid as a passive seller was waiting at the highs

Levels from yesterday (6/20 session) into today:

VAH 4443, POC 4435, VAL 4424

• gap ranges: 4444.75 - 4448.25 and 4449 - 4459 (from the abbreviated session)

• poor/unsecured high and low

• settlement and the last price at 4434.75 and 4430.50, respectively

• 50% retracement: 4427.75

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.50

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 45.2 and Bears 22.7 last updated 6/14 (numbers not seen since 2021)

The OVN inventory attempted to get above 4440 for several periods but failed, leaving a poor high around that area and now trading under the settlement price of 4434.75 as of 6:30 AM CST. If we were to open around here, within the previous day’s value area, I would expect two-way trading initially, with price probes around the VAL and VAH, but Fed speakers can exacerbate the moves.

My pivot for the day will be 4435.

Scenario 1:

pullback longs around 4416, or wait to see if we will repair the poor low and possibly repair the poor high as a target. With the gap ranges in mind for possible targets/destinations (the IB close will be closely watched).

Side note: I will continue to monitor the scenarios from the previous plan as they are still areas of interest.

Scenario 2:

will the passive seller still be waiting around the highs? If so, I will look for a fade around 4451 after repairing the poor high, but if we take this area out, there is potential for more upside. More of a neutral zone for me

As always credits to Jontron and 1000 thank yous’ for your amazing daily analysis!!