Jun 22nd - Day 2 of Fed Chair Powell Testimony, Feds Bowman and Mester Speeches, ECB Guindos Speech
Recap from yesterday June 20th and context bulding:
Scenario 1’s pullback longs around 4416 was not it as we continue the trend of gapping down at open. Sellers were in control from A-C periods before finding support around the VAL of the CPI, and FOMC merged values around 4404 with the day’s low at 4403.50 and reversing back up for the London close, with a failed attempt of breaking the IB high in F period and selling off till the H period, giving us the mid-day pullback and the subsequent periods filling the gap left from the morning session, and selling off to end session.
And scenario 2 was invalid as the price could not get above the 4435 pivot point
Levels carried forward into today:
6/21 session: VAH 4419, POC 4413, VAL 4409
• K period excess/selling tail
• poor/unsecured low
• 50% retracement: 4417.25
• NTPOC: 4413
• settlement price: 4409.25
• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.53
• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 45.2 and Bears 22.7 last updated 6/14 (numbers not seen since 2021)
• Day 2 of OTFD, 3 if you count the abbreviated session
And since we are near the FOMC SoC, as a reminder of areas of interest:
• and the 6/14 low at 4383.50
• 6/13 and 6/14 | I merged these two days together, the CPI and FOMC SoC: VAH: 4423, POC: 4416, VAL: 4404
• 6/12 | single prints: 4380.50 - 4376.50 and 4374 - 4369, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50, ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25
Today and Overnight:
The OVN inventory is net short and currently trading below the settlement price at 4409.25. If we are to open here as of 6:30 AM
CST, we will have an upper gap and several points from the previous day’s low at 4403.50.
My pivot for today will be 4414. It’s getting lower and lower, LOL
Scenario 1:
I will monitor the price around the OVN low for a failed follow-through to fill the gap toward settlement and monitor 4414 to hold for a breakout. This has to be quick as this is countertrend and could be just an inventory correction.
Scenario 2:
Monitor 4414 - 4417 for a fade if we get there, but start watching around 4410.
Scenario 3:
Monitor 4380 - 4383.50 for long ops. If this area breaks down, we may go for the rollover gap
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pTzlOBbibQo59Ev1J4ncSb4srvV-5I65/view?usp=drive_link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HaZ03QWlNlmIzdyM82ZnZd7cB81PEkut/view?usp=drive_link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_tUthUWnr-mJeo6yyqRs0J534fNkqFP0/view?usp=drive_link
As always credits to Jontron