Jun 23rd - Feds Bostic (7 AM CST) and Mester Speeches, ECB Panetta Speech, S&P Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs
Recap from June 22th and key levels for today:
Scenario 1 played out perfectly yesterday and right into scenario 2 for a fade which also worked out perfect, with scenario 3 being invalid as the price was never traded to that area.
6/22 session: VAH: 4421, POC 4410, VAL 4404
• A period excess
• POC, TPOC, and 50% retracement all at the same area: 4410
• poor/unsecured high
• settlement and last price at 4423.75 and 4425.25, respectively
• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.64
• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 42.9 and Bears 27.8, last updated 6/21 (numbers not seen since 2021)
• Day 3 of OTFD, 4 if you count the abbreviated session
And since we are near the FOMC SoC, as a reminder of areas of interest and the 6/14 low at 4383.50
• 6/13 and 6/14 | I merged these two days together, the CPI and FOMC SoC: VAH: 4423, POC: 4416, VAL: 4404
• 6/12 | single prints: 4380.50 - 4376.50 and 4374 - 4369, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50, ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25
Overnight and TODAYs Scenarios:
The OVN session is net short, trading well below the settlement and last price at 4423.75 and 4425.25, respectively. And if we were to open here, we would have an upper gap. We may have a gap-and-go scenario if we do not get an inventory correction.
My pivot for today will be 4410.
Scenario 1:
If we cannot fill the gap in the morning session, I will look to fade around 4414 - 4417 but start watching price action around 4410, basically scenario 2 from yesterday’s plan.
Scenario 2:
Monitor 4400/4398 for long ops. I will watch if sellers struggle to reach the previous day’s low at 4393.75. Passive buyers were absorbing all the selling around 4395 - 4397.
Scenario 3:
Monitor 4380 - 4383.50 for long ops. If this area breaks down, we may go for the rollover gap.
Side notes: Scenario 2 can be an obstacle for further downside for S1, and S1 can be an obstacle for additional upside. Massive upside potential if we can get above 4429 and possible downside if we breakdown around 4380 - 4383.50
As always credits to Jontron