26 Jun, 2023 - In depth breakdown of the Trading week ahead. Key levels and what to look out for on the RTH open on June 26th with possible trade Scenarios

Jun 26th - Jun 30th

News for the week:

ECB President Lagarde Speech (Mon and Tues), Durable Good, Fed Chair Powell Speech (Wed and Thurs), GDP Price Index and Growth Rate QoQ, EU Inflation Rate and Unemployment Rate, Personal Income/Spending MoM, Core PCE MoM, Month-end

Todays (June 26th) Scenarios and Key levels:

Near-term Areas/ranges I’m interested in next week for the reopening in addition to the 6/23 session values, possibly some overlap:

• 4380 (LVA), 4390 (HVN), 4400

• 4400, 4415 (HVN), 4424 (HVN)

My pivot for the reopening will be 4390.

Scenario 1:

An IB close above 4390. I will target the upper ranges for my near-term areas of interest with many gaps and poor highs above.

Scenario 2:

An IB close below 4390. I will target the rollover gap.

I will only enter on a pullback long or a backtest short of the pivot.

Massive upside potential if we can get above 4429 and possible downside if we breakdown around 4380 - 4383.50

Bulletized information carried forward / analysis

• Price points of interest: 4232, 4215, 4205, 4200, 4190, 4180, 4170, 4165/60, 4140, 4125, and 4100

• Waterfall moment may occur at 4075

• From ATH and October 2022 lows: 61.8%: 4309.25, 50%: 4155.25, 38.2%: 4001

• The high of Aug 16th, 2022, at 4327.50

• Gaps: 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50

June thus far:

• 61.8%: 4373, 50%: 4336, 38.2%: 4298

• High: 4493.50 Low: 4178

• 6/16 | A period selling tail/excess, NTPOC: 4472.50

• 6/13 and 6/14 | I merged these two days together, the CPI and FOMC SoC: VAH: 4423, POC: 4416, VAL: 4404

• 6/12 | single prints: 4380.50 - 4376.50 and 4374 - 4369, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50, ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25

• 6/8 | A period excess, single print range: 4283 - 4281.50, 2-day CVA: VAH 4367, POC 4349, VAL 4348

• 6/2 | Gap-up range: 4293 - 4275.75

• 6/1 | 4262.50 - 4258, 4254.50 - 4252.50, 4245.50 - 4242, NTPOC: 4272.50

Last Week: Jun 19th - Jun 23rd:

VAH 4424, POC 4415, VAL 4389

• My key level for next week is 4390/88. Numerous tests in this area

• Inside Week

• Weekly high: 4462 Weekly low: 4381.50

• 61.8%: 4431, 50%: 4422, 38.2%: 4412

• Timeframe continuity: Daily: Down, Weekly: Down, Monthly: Up, Quarterly: Up

• 1st week in 4 weeks not making a higher high, an attempt at a possible trend reversal

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.64

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 42.9 and Bears 27.8, last updated 6/21 (numbers not seen since 2021)

• Low volume

MGI from the previous week with Gaps and Poor/Unsecured Highs galore, some filled during the session.

• 6/23 | Gap range: 4408 - 4421.75, poor/unsecured high, NTPOC: 4389

• 6/22 | Poor/unsecured high, NTPOC: 4409

• 6/21 | K period selling tail

• 6/20 | Gap range: 4444.75 - 4448.25, poor/unsecured high, NTPOC: 4434.50

• 6/19 | Abbreviated Session, poor/unsecured high, gap range: 4449 - 4459, NTPOC: 4446.50

May:

• From a monthly perspective 3rd test, oddly, the 1st test was in May of 2022 (pretty close in terms of when it occurred), and the 2nd was in Aug 2022, with the weekly 5th test and daily 7th test of the 4300 area, since Apr 2022.

• May is the 4th consecutive month of higher highs and higher lows.

• 5/31 | The poor/unsecured low around 4218

• 5/26 | A period excess buying tail.

• 5/25 | non-excess lows, NTPOC 4203

• 5/24 | Poor/unsecured low at 4158, NTPOC 4170

• 5/4 | Neutral profile, high volume, non-excess low 4106, a cluster of buying between 4120 - 4116 (possible waterfall moment if we revisit), NTPOC 4122.50

• 5/5 | Gap-up range 4011.50 - 4072.75 | ESU23 4118.50 - 4155 imbalanced up

• 5/12 | Poor low at 4156 (4 tests of this area)