Jun 28th

News for the day:

Fed Chair Powell Testimony (8:30 AM CST), ECB President Lagarde Speech (8:30 AM CST and 10:00 AM CST)

Todays (June 26th) Scenarios and Key levels:

6/28 session: VAH 4425, POC 4419, VAL 4387

• single prints: 4411.50, 4400, 4396, and 4393.25 - 4391

• poor/unsecured high

• settlement and the last price at 4418.75 and 4414.75, respectively

• 61.8%: 4405, 50%: 4400, 38.2%: 4394

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.52

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 42.9 and Bears 27.8, last updated 6/21 (numbers not seen since 2021)

I added the Fib’s golden ratio because of its confluence with the single prints.

The OVN inventory is net short as it is trading below the settlement and last price, and if we were to open here, we would have a slight upper gap as of 6:00 AM CST.

My pivot for today will be 4415.

If we can get above 4429, there is potential to clean up the 6/20 session’s | Gap range: 4444.75 - 4448.25, poor/unsecured high, NTPOC: 4434.50, and the 6/19 abbreviated session’s poor high poor/unsecured high, gap range: 4449 - 4459, and NTPOC: 4446.50

We will likely open within yesterday’s range as it is so vast. But if we open above, there’s a possibility for a gap and go, unlikely.

Scenario 1:

pullback longs around 4404 - 4400, possibly aggressive longs around the pivot if we cannot trade down to that area

Scenario 2:

go with the breakdown of 4404 - 4400, and look to get in around the pivot. The destination would be the FOMC low

Scenario 3:

go with the breakout of 4429, possible continuation play with scenario 1. The destination would be the 6/20 and 6/19 MGIs

As always credits to Jontron