Jun 30th

News for the day:

Core PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Quarter-end/Month-end, Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations, $JHEQX Collar Trade

Todays (June 30th) Scenarios and Key levels:

6/29 session: VAH 4433, POC 4431, VAL 4418 • A period excess

• Poor/unsecured high

• NTPOC: 4427

• settlement and the last price at 4435.75

• 61.8%: 4427, 50%: 4424, 38.2%: 4420.50

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.58

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 41.9 and Bears 27.5, last updated 6/28 (numbers not seen since 2021)

Carryover statement from the past two sessions.

If we can get above 4429, there is potential to clean up the 6/20 session’s | Gap range: 4444.75 - 4448.25, poor/unsecured high, NTPOC: 4434.50, and the 6/19 abbreviated session’s poor high poor/unsecured high, gap range: 4449 - 4459, and NTPOC: 4446.50

However, today is quite different as the OVN session as of 5:45 AM CST is not respecting the previous day’s high and completely fills the 6/20 and 6/19 MGIs during Globex. And is trading way above settlement and the last price of 4435.75 with a massive gap below, with two sets of single prints around 4448 and 4444.

My pivot for today will be 4436, but I will also watch the previous day’s high closely at 4438.

We may have a gap-and-go scenario if Core PCE and Personal Income numbers are favorable to the market. I don’t know what is favorable, but I will try to put myself in a good position around reference areas.

I will keep it simple and monitor the order flow around the pivot and the previous day’s high if we get there. And all based on the gap

Scenario 1:

Go with the gap

Scenario 2:

Monitor for the gap fill and go with the gap breakdown

Scenario 3

Wait for the gap to fill, then reverse/fade

Side note: Some use the previous day’s high as the mark for completion of the gap, and some use the settlement/last price

As always credits to Jontron