July 3rd - 7th

News for the week:

ISM Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Minutes, Balance of Trade, ISM Services PMI, JOLTs, ADP Employment Report, Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate

MGI carried forward

• Timeframe continuity: Quarterly: Up, Weekly: Up, Monthly: Up, Daily: Up

• Quarterly: 61.8%: 4331, 50%: 4280, 38.2%: 4229

• Gaps: 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50

• ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25

• If price trends lower, I will reintroduce May’s MGI, but there’s a high +EV play around 4156 (4 tests of this area)

• VIX expiration July 19th (mid-month)

June:

• 61.8%: 4375, 50%: 4338, 38.2%: 4300

• High: 4498 Low: 4178

• 6/30 | PCE Gap-up range: 4465 - 4436.25, Spike range: 4498 - 4480.75

• 6/29 | A period excess, NTPOC: 4427

• 6/28 | Poor/unsecured low: around 4400/4399

• 6/27 | Single prints: 4396, and 4393.25 - 4391

• 6/26 | Non-excess lows: 4368.50

• 6/19 | NTPOC: 4446.50

• 6/12 | NTPOC: 4361.75, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50, ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25

• 6/9 | poor/unsecured low: 4338

• 6/8 | A period excess, single print range: 4283 - 4281.50, 2-day CVA: VAH 4367, POC 4349, VAL 4348

• 6/2 | Gap-up range: 4293 - 4275.75

• 6/1 | A period excess, single prints: 4262.50 - 4258, 4254.50 - 4252.50, 4245.50 - 4242, NTPOC: 4272.50

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.64

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 42.9 and Bears 27.8, last updated 6/28 (numbers not seen since 2021)

• 4493/4495 | +EV 2

Last Week: (Jun 26th - Jun 30th):

VAH 4438, POC 4419, VAL 4380, TPOC: 4411.50

• Outside week

• 61.8%: 4448, 50%: 4433, 38.2%: 4418

• Weekly high: 4498 Weekly low: 4368.50

• Weekly single prints: 4472, 4457, and 4446

• If you merge the past three weeks, you will get the same value area as Jun 26th - Jun 30th

Last session (Friday 30/06):

VAH 4493, POC 4484, VAL 4478

• A period excess

• PCE Gap-up range: 4465 - 4436.25

• Spike range: 4498 - 4480.75

• Settlement and the last price at 4488.25 and 4482.50, respectively

• TPOC: 4481.25

• 61.8%: 4485.50, 50%: 4481.50, 38.2%: 4477.50

Possible scenarios for the re-open on July 3rd

Scenario 1:

Fade 4492/90, possibly start monitoring price action around 4488 and, if needed, aggressive shorts around the settlement price. (Counter trend) Targeting the POC and VAL with the ultimate destination at the gap high at 4465 will be the 1st test of the gap high. 4465 - 4436.25 is quite a massive gap if filled

Scenario 2:

Monitor 4465 for failed follow-through for a fade back up to VAL, POC toward the VAH, with the ultimate destination breakout of 4493/4495 | +EV 2

As always credits to Jontron