July 6th

News for the day:

ADP Employment Numbers, ISM Services PMI, JOLT

Todays (July 6th) Scenarios and Key levels:

4-Day CVA: VAH 4493, POC 4485, VAL 4482

7/5 session: VAH 4489, POC 4485, VAL 4483

• A period excess

• Poor/unsecured high

• settlement and the last price at 4483.75 (NTPOC) and 4482, respectively

• 50% retracement: 4481.25

• J period low at 4475

• Day’s low: 4471

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (CBOE website isn’t updating for me)

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 41.9 and Bears 27.5, last updated 6/28 (numbers not seen since 2021)

As of 5:30 AM CST, the OVN session again unrespecting the previous day’s range and trades below the day’s low of around 4465. If we open here, there would be a massive upper gap with the last price at 4482 and settlement about a point above, a similar situation as yesterday. And this would count as a 3rd test of this area around 4465 if you include the previous OVN session

And on the upper range around 4490/92, 5 tests.

My pivot for today will be 4475.

Scenario 1:

Fade 4475, but be extra cautious as we may try to fill the gap toward the last price. Or wait until the gap is filled to decide around 4482. Aggressive short, if needed, around 4471. The ultimate destination will be the fill of the PCE Gap-up range: 4465 (EV 3) - 4436.25. (Counter trend from a higher timeframe)

Scenario 2:

Play the gap fill but be mindful that 4471 and 4475 could be obstacles toward the last price, and watch for continuation toward the high EV breakout around 4490/92 (EV 3+ tests).

Scenario 3:

Watch for failed follow-through of 4465 for a fade that can continue into S2

Scenario 4:

How to Catch a Falling Knife around 4432? Unsure if we would get there today, but tomorrow for NFP

As always credits to Jontron