July 7th

News for the day:

Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings MoM/YoYv

Todays (July 7th) Scenarios and Key levels:

Jun 26th - Jun 30th: VAH 4438, POC 4419, VAL 4380, TPOC: 4411.50

• Outside week

• 61.8%: 4448, 50%: 4433, 38.2%: 4418

• If you merge the past three weeks, you will get the same value area as Jun 26th - Jun 30th

7/6 session: VAH 4450, POC 4447, VAL 4430

Regarding Market Profile, we had a “neutral extreme” day as we had range expansion on both ends of the IB, with a close at the highs, which usually signals a win for the bulls for the day.

• A period excess

• Poor/unsecured high

• settlement and the last price at 4483.75 (NTPOC) and 4482, respectively

• 50% retracement: 4481.25

• J period low at 4475

• Day’s low: 4471

• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.00 (CBOE website isn’t updating for me)

• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 41.9 and Bears 27.5, last updated 6/28 (numbers not seen since 2021)

Interestingly, the AAII sentiment slightly increased, but before the ADP Employment numbers.

Besides the areas mentioned above, I am also interested in 4464 and 4404 (CPI and FOMC VAL)

As of 5:00 AM CST, the OVN inventory is net short as it has been trading under the settlement price. And with NFP data released before the market opens at 7:30 AM CST, I am unsure if we will open within yesterday’s value area, but it’s about 20 points between the VAH and VAL

My pivot for the day will be 4435

Scenario 1:

A hold of the pivot I will target the 7/6 poor/unsecured high. I will watch for follow-through for a hold until 4464, and if order flow permits, the 7/5 session’s reference areas. (Counter trend from the gap down) Also, we did make a lower low from a daily timeframe perspective.

With the high EV area around 4490/92 (EV 3+ tests) in mind.

Scenario 2:

Watch 4464 for a fade as early as the 7/6 high for a failed follow-through. Targeting the 4435 pivot/obstacle, the poor low (4419.50), and ultimately the CPI and FOMC VAL (4404)

As always credits to Jontron