July 10th - July 14th
News for the week:
Fed Speakers Barr, Daly, Mester, and Bostic Speeches (Mon), Fed Bullard Speech (Tues), Fed Kashkari Speech (Wed), CPI MoM/YoY, PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Inflation Expectations
We have a big week with economic data filled with Fed speakers and the start of earnings season, $DAL, $JPM, $C, $WFC, $PGR, and $UNH, to name a few, towards the end of the week. And one of the biggest contributing factors to high CPI is the services, particularly the cost of motor vehicle insurance, up 17.1% from the prior year. Let’s see what $PGR has forecasted before the opening on Thursday on that front, if any.
MGI carried forward
• Timeframe continuity: Quarterly: Down, Weekly: Down, Monthly: Down, Daily: Down
• Previous Quarter: 61.8%: 4331, 50%: 4280, 38.2%: 4229
• Gaps: 4476 - 4483.75, 4293 - 4275.75, 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50
• ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25
• 3YR Pivots: 4464 and 4420/19 | 4464 is an LVN for the past 40 days, while 4420/19 became the POC
• If price trends lower, I will reintroduce May’s MGI, but there’s a high +EV play around 4156 (EV 4)
• VIX expiration July 19th (mid-month)
June:
• 61.8%: 4375, 50%: 4338, 38.2%: 4300
• High: 4498 Low: 4178
• 6/30 | PCE Gap-up range: 4465 - 4436.25, Spike range: 4498 - 4480.75
• 6/29 | A period excess
• 6/28 | Poor/unsecured low: around 4400/4399
• 6/27 | Single prints: 4396 and 4393.25 - 4391
• 6/26 | Non-excess lows: 4368.50
• 6/12 | NTPOC: 4361.75, poor/unsecured low: 4351.50, ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25
• 6/9 | poor/unsecured low: 4338
• 6/8 | A period excess, single print range: 4283 - 4281.50, 2-day CVA: VAH 4367, POC 4349, VAL 4348
• 6/2 | Gap-up range: 4293 - 4275.75
• 6/1 | A period excess, single prints: 4262.50 - 4258, 4254.50 - 4252.50, 4245.50 - 4242, NTPOC: 4272.50
• 4493/4495 | EV 2
• 4490/92 | EV 3
Last Week: (July 3rd - July 7th):
VAH 4493.50, POC 4485, VAL 4444, TPOC 4490
• Inside Week
• 61.8%: 4465, 50%: 4456, 38.2%: 4447
• Weekly high: 4494 Weekly low: 4419.50
• If you merge the past four weeks: VAH 4451, POC 4419, VAL 4378, little change for the past several weeks.
• Gaps: 4476 - 4483.75
• 4475 | EV 2
• 4435 | EV 2
• 7/7 | Poor/Unsecured high and low, Spike range: 4462 - 4432
• 7/6 | Gap: 4476 - 4483.75 Poor/Unsecured low: 4420/19 | EV 1
• 7/5 | NTPOC: 4483.75
Last session (Friday 07/07):
7/7 session: VAH 4459, POC 4450, VAL 4433
• Spike range: 4462 - 4432
• Poor/Unsecured high and low
• 61.8%: 4459, 50%: 4454, 38.2%: 4449
• Settlement and the last price at 4434 and 4438, respectively
• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.52
• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 46.4 and Bears 24.5, last updated 7/5 (numbers not seen since 2021)
Possible scenarios for the re-open on July 10th
My pivot for the reopening will be 4452.
Scenario 1:
I am looking to fade 4455 if we get there, aggressively around 4452 if needed, with 4435, poor low, and ultimately another test of 4420/19 | EV 1, as targets.
All considered targets/obstacles for a further move down. And a breakdown of 4420/19, I will target the CPI and FOMC VAL from the previous month around 4404. (With trend)
Scenario 2:
A hold above the pivot at 4452. I will be targeting 4464 and 4475. (Counter trend)
Scenario 3:
Fade 4420/19 back up, and all the reference areas in S1 and S2 will be obstacles and targets. (Counter trend)
You can see my bias in marking my scenarios with-trend and counter-trend
July 3rd - July 7th with 4-week volume profile
As always credits to Jontron