July 17th - July 24th
News for the week:
Retail Sales, Feds Barr and Gibson Speeches, Building Permits
MGI carried forward
• Timeframe continuity: Quarterly: Up, Weekly: Up, Monthly: Up, Daily: Down
• Previous Quarter: 61.8%: 4331, 50%: 4280, 38.2%: 4229
• Gaps: 4476 - 4483.75, 4293 - 4275.75, 4249 - 4231.50, 4011.50 - 4072.75, 4032 - 4004.50
• ESM23 to ESMU23 rollover gap: 4307.50 - 4351.25
• 3YR Pivots: 4464 and 4420/19 | 4464 is an LVN for the past 40 days, while 4420/19 became the POC
• If price trends lower, I will reintroduce June and May’s MGI, but there’s a high +EV play around 4156 (EV 4)
• VIX expiration July 19th (mid-month)
July 3rd - July 14th:
VAH 4506, POC 4445, VAL 4411 | Mid-month MGI
• 61.8%: 4503, 50%: 4485, 38.2%: 4468
• High: 4560.50 Low: 4411.50
• 7/14 | B period excess, non-excess lows, NTPOC: 4544.50
• 7/13 | Gap range: 4521.25 - 4510.50, A period excess
• 7/12 | CPI Gap range: 4497 - 4471.50, NTPOC 4510.25, 4522 | EV 2, 4500 |EV 2, 4596 | EV 1 Catch a falling knife?
• 7/11 | B period excess, NTPOC 4456, 4451 | EV 3
• 7/10 | F period excess, NTPOC 4436
• 7/6 | Poor/Unsecured low: 4420/19 | EV 1
• 7/5 | NTPOC: 4483.75
• 4475/72 | Catch a falling knife? But if we make it this far, we may test the 4464 area
• 4435 | EV 2
• 4-Day CVA: VAH 4493, POC 4485, VAL 4482
July 10th - July 14th:
VAH 4530, POC 4438, VAL 4411.50
• Outside week
• 61.8%: 4503, 50%: 4485, 38.2%: 4468
• 7/14 | B period excess, non-excess lows, NTPOC: 4544.50
• 7/13 | Gap range: 4521.25 - 4510.50, A period excess
• 7/12 | CPI Gap range: 4497 - 4471.50, NTPOC 4510.25, 4522 | EV 2, 4500 | EV 2, 4596 | EV 1 Catch a falling knife?
• 7/11 | B period excess, NTPOC 4456, 4451 | EV 3
• 7/10 | F period excess, NTPOC 4436
7/14 session: VAH 4550, POC 4537, VAL 4533
• B period excess
• Non-excess lows
• NTPOC: 4544.50
• Daily gravestone Doji candlestick (24-hour period)
• settlement and the last price at 4536.75 and 4535.25, respectively
• 61.8%: 4550, 50%: 4445, 38.2%: 4442
• Equity Put/Call Ratio: 0.48
• AAII Sentiment: Bulls 41 and Bears 25.9, last updated 7/21
My pivot for the reopening will be 4534 with a few points lower for scenario 1.
Scenario 1:
Fade 4540, or wait and see if we can make it to 4545. Targets will be the pivot and the VAL, aiming to fill the 7/13 gap, with the 7/13 low being a big obstacle.
• 7/13 | Gap range: 4521.25 - 4510.50, A period excess
Scenario 2:
Fade 4516/10 back up if we get there, but monitor the price action around the gap’s low for failed followthrough. Targets will be the VAL, POC, and pivot
Scenario 3:
Go with the breakdown of 4516/10. It could be a continuation hold of S2 with the 7/12 MGIs in mind. But has to be extremely bearish for the gap to fill as nothing has changed fundamentally since CPI
• 7/12 | CPI Gap range: 4497 - 4471.50, NTPOC 4510.25, 4525/22 | EV 1, 4500 | EV 2, 4596 | EV 1 Catch a falling knife around 4596?
Side note: I will monitor Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for divergence for that knife catching at 4596
24HR Period Candles
1HR Candles RTH Only
As always credits to Jontron